The Constant values found during optimization have some uncertainty around them and we can get a better handle on that uncertainty by testing the sensitivity of the payoff around the optimum. For this particular problem we have chosen weights so that the default payoff value sensitivity will give 95% confidence bounds. We will also use the Simulation Control to manage the optimization.
| Ø | Click on the Simulation Control button  on the Toolbar. |
| Ø | Type a new run name such as run3. |
| Ø | Click on the Advanced tab. |
| Ø | Click on Ed... to the right of Optimization Control. |
| Ø | The Sensitivity is set to Off. Click on the dropdown arrow to the right and select Payoff Value. Enter the value 4 in the box after the = sign. (Payoff Value = 4). Click on OK. |
| Ø | Click on the Changes tab. In the Load Changes From field type run2.out. |
The output of an optimization is designed so that it can be read as a constants input file. This will allow the optimizer to start from the value found in the last optimization.
| Ø | Click on the Optimize button. |
| Ø | When the optimization is finished use the menu File>Edit File... to open the file sensitiv.tab. |
This file contains information on the 95% confidence bounds for the parameter estimates. These should look something like:
0.00526005 <= CONVERSION FRACTION = 0.00551817 <= 0.00579413
0.0128454 <= HOUSEHOLD ADDITION RATE =0.0133057 <= 0.0137479
0.0483586 <= INITIAL FRACTION ELECTRIC =0.0553119 <= 0.0632539
1.94407e+007 <= INITIAL HOUSEHOLDS = 1.98387e+007 <= 2.02301e+007
| Ø | Select File>Close to close sensitiv.tab. |
